The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events: The Lebanese Directed Wars and Crisis Phase III (LDWPIII)

The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events: The Lebanese Directed Wars and Crisis Phase III (LDWPIII)

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-7020-6.ch014
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Abstract

This chapter uses the author's applied holistic mathematical model (AHMM) to support geopolitical analysis (GA) activities and decision-making in the context of eXtreme crisis (XC), like the one that has been striking Lebanon for more than five decades. GA needs a polymathic in-depth structure that can be abstracted with a generic GA Concept (GAC). The AHMM for GA (AHMM4GA) was already used to analyze the origins of the destabilization of the Middle East's area (MEA) and especially in the case of the directed wars on Lebanon. This destabilization resulted in extremely violent destruction and immigration of its minorities; especially in the period between the years 1943 and 1982, which was already analyzed by the author and was identified as phases I and II (or LDWPI and LDWPII). In this chapter, the focus is on the period between the years 1982 and 1990 (or LDWPIII), that followed the LDWPII.
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Background

For LDWPs’, the GAC4XC uses a cross-functional mixed research method to deliver analysis and recommendations for directed XC events and environments. GAC4XC’s strategy is generic and uses various XC management, geopolitical & security concepts, Enterprise Architecture (EA), AI, Machine Learning (ML), Knowledge Management System for GA (KMS4GA), knowledge of the MEA and its historical cyclic dramas, sub-cultures, and Communication Systems’ (ICS) impacts. The GAC4XC uses actively a Learning Process (LP, like AI/ML) which manages sets of Critical Success Factors (CSF) that can be used by a societal transformation project (or simply the Project). The author apologizes in advance for any possible offense created in discussing delicate GA based historical and geopolitical events; where he is aware that opposite views exist, but in the same time he considers that the freedom of speech as a fundamental right. The GAC4XC is agnostic to any Applied Problem Domain (APD); it is founded on the author’s research framework that is based on existing standards, like the Architecture Development Method for GA (ADM4GA) (The Open Group, 2011a, 2011b) and other market frameworks, can be used with The Open Group’s Architecture Framework’s (TOGAF). The transformation manager, GAC4XC analysts or enterprise architect (or simply the Manager) can integrate the GAC4XC in an organization (simply an Entity). Many CSFs influence GA4XC’s integration, like 1) MEA’s and Mediterranean civilizations’ standards; 2) XC endangered minorities; 3) Extremism and anti-Semitism; 4) Totalitarian and aggressive dictatorships like the RbIS ones; and 5) Lebanon’s evolution. The author’s research project’s keywords were introduced in the scholar engine (in Google’s search) and the results clearly show the uniqueness and the absolute lead of the author’s methodology, research and works. Due to this fact, the author considers his works in the mentioned fields as successful and useful. The GAC4XC is optimal for the XCs like the LDWPIII which is the focus.

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