The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events: The Lebanese-Directed War Phase II (LDWPII)

The Transformation Framework for Geopolitical Analysis/Middle East's Geopolitical Events: The Lebanese-Directed War Phase II (LDWPII)

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-7020-6.ch013
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Abstract

This chapter uses the author's applied holistic mathematical model (AHMM) to support geopolitical analysis (GA) activities and decision making. GA needs a concise generic structure that is abstracted with the GA Concept (GAC). The AHMM for GA (AHMM4GA) was already used to analyse the origins of the destabilization of the Middle East's Area (MEA) and especially in the case of Lebanon. This destabilization resulted in furious directed wars; where during the period between the years 1943 and 1975, which was already analysed by the author and was identified as phase I or LWDPI (Trad, 2019a). In this chapter the focus is on the period between the years 1975 and 1982 (or LWDPII), which the author identifies as phase II. Lebanon has deep Semito-Phoenicians' (SP) origins that has given it specific characteristics and problems.
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Background

For LWDPII’s GA uses a cross-functional mixed research method to deliver recommendations for very conflictual environments, like the: 1) MEA and Lebanon; 2) Balkans and Bosnia; 3) Caucasia and Armenia; 4) Africa’s border countries; and others… GAC’s strategy is generic and uses various geopolitical & security concepts, Enterprise Architecture (EA), AI, Machine Learning (ML), Knowledge Management System for GA (KMS4GA), knowledge of the MEA and its sub-cultures, and Communication Systems (ICS). The GAC uses actively a learning process (AI/ML) which manages sets of Critical Success Factors (CSF) that can be used by a transformation project (or simply the Project). The author apologizes in advance for any possible offense created in discussing delicate historical and geopolitical events; where he is aware that opposite views exist, which he respects. The GAC is domain driven and is agnostic to any Applied Problem Domain (APD); it is founded on the author’s research framework that is based on existing standards, like the Architecture Development Method for GA (ADM4GA) (The Open Group, 2011a, 2011b) and the Sherwood Applied Business Security Architecture (SABSA), which can be coupled with The Open Group’s Architecture Framework’s (TOGAF) major components. The transformation manager, GA analysts or enterprise architect (or simply the Manager) can integrate the GAC in an organization (simply an Entity). Many CSFs influence GA’s integration, like 1) MEA’s and Mediterranean civilizations; 2) Semite civilizations; 3) SP’s culture and heritage; 4) Endangered minorities; 5) Extremism and anti-Semitism; and 6) Lebanon’s evolution. The author’s research project’s keywords were introduced in the scholar engine (in Google’s search) and the results clearly show the uniqueness and the absolute lead of the author’s methodology, research and works. Due to this fact, the author considers his works in the mentioned fields as successful and useful. The GAC is optimal for the LWDPII which is the focus.

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