Abstract
An anthropogenic load is the main cause of forest fires in the vicinity of settlements and various objects of transport or industrial infrastructure. It is proposed to mark out linear and point sources of anthropogenic load. For the numerical simulation, the similarity in the processes of propagation of anthropogenic load and diffusive heat transfer was used. The quantitative characteristic of the anthropogenic load is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires in the controlled forest area. A mathematical model to predict the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source is presented. Distributions of the virtual number of forest fires for model data from a point source of anthropogenic load are obtained. Conclusions about the patterns of the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source are formulated. The prospects for the further development of these results are described.
TopBackground
Forest fires destroy the forest stands and pollute the atmosphere with the products of pyrolysis and combustion of forest fuels (Baranovskiy & Kuznetsov, 2017a). An important part of strategic measures to prevent the negative impact of forest fires on plant communities and settlements is the forecast of their occurrence.
Key Terms in this Chapter
Point Source: Source of anthropogenic load that characterized in virtual number of forest fire evolution in polar system of coordinates.
Forest Fire: Uncontrolled aerothermochemical phenomenon characterized by step-by-step mechanism which includes following stages: inert heating, moisture evaporation, high temperature terpens evaporation, dry organic matter pyrolysis, flammable combustion and smoldering.
Prediction: Under the prediction of forest fires is the calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a certain projection in advance in order to have enough time to anticipate an emergency. The calculation in this case is carried out in a mode ahead of the real time of the development of the catastrophe - the occurrence of a forest fire.
Anthropogenic Load: Different human activities on forested territories lead to forest fire occurrence and characterized by presence of fire sources.
Monitoring: Monitoring refers to the periodic calculation of the parameters of forest fire danger with a portion of information available in real time.
Virtual Number of Forest Fires: Possible (calculated) number of forest fire around source of anthropogenic load which equal to real number of forest fire in some selected sites.
Mathematical Simulation: The production of a computer model of forest fire conditions and prerequisites, especially for the purpose of study.