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Top2030 – Megatrends, Vision And Scenarious
A new concept developed in the last few years, challenge many entities to consider in their strategy development and business planning: “megatrends”. Global, sustained, macro forces spread over long periods of time, megatrends are “out there.” Megatrends signify major shifts in the economy, society, cultures, and personal lives – which means they may present material opportunities or challenges for an industry, business or entities. Plus, megatrends tend to amplify over time. This means that there can be a possibility to gain for businesses looking ahead and positioning themselves favorably for relevant megatrends. In megatrends identification and analysis entities can use the STEEP method to determine which key factors can influence its success: Social, Technology, Economic, Environmental, and Political and to build a STEEP framework. Each of these megatrends is cited by many of the last years’ study regarding megatrends (EY, PWC, KPMG).
By 2030, it is predicted that our planet’s cities will grow in number, size, and population. Explosive population growth in some areas against declines in others contributes to everything from shifts in economic power to resource scarcity to the changes in societal norms. Countries have very different demographic trajectories. Some societies are aging rapidly and their workforces will be constrained as a share of the total population. Other societies are young and growing, which will create ever larger labor forces and consumer markets. Youthful, growing populations must be fed, housed, educated, and employed for productive potential to be realized.
In the 1950’s, less than 30% of the world’s population lived in cities. Currently, that proportion has risen to 55% and, by 2030, the UN projects that some 4.9 billion people will be urban dwellers. Out of 2050, the world’s urban population will have increased by some 72%. Much of the growth in urban population will likely take place in Asia and Africa. Large scale migrations from rural areas will power much of this growth. In developed economies and older cities in the developing world, infrastructure will be strained to the utmost—and beyond—as populations expand. Meanwhile, in emerging economies, new cities will rise rapidly and require massive investments in smart infrastructure to accommodate explosive growth.