Risk Propagation Mechanism Research Based on SITR Model of Complex Supply Networks

Risk Propagation Mechanism Research Based on SITR Model of Complex Supply Networks

Jianjun Zhu, Yamin Cheng, Yuhuai Zhang
DOI: 10.4018/IJISSCM.2021070102
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Abstract

Supply chain risk management is an important topic in supply chain management. The authors investigate the rules and characteristics of risk propagation in complex supply networks. Aiming at the characteristics of complex supply chain with complex structure and large risk consequences, considering the different impact capabilities and different anti-risk capabilities of each enterprise node, this paper proposes a SITR (susceptible-infected-temporarily removed-completely removed) risk propagation model based on weighted networks. After the dynamic analysis of the proposed model, numerical simulation is performed, and a supply chain risk control strategy is proposed according to the simulation results. The research shows that the enterprise's complete recovery rate and risk infection rate have a greater impact on the risk propagation in the supply chain network. Enterprises should increase their awareness of risk management and control, improve their complete recovery rate, and reduce their risk of infection.
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Literature Review

Supply chain risk management is an important part in the field of supply chain research. Many scholars have studied the supply chain risk communication. Borgman and Rachan (2009) established a model to identify potential risks in the supply chain. Chakrabarty and Bandyopadhyay et al. (2010) found that reengineering the supply chain requires collaborative security investments to reduce the impact of risk propagation in the supply chain network. Zhang (2012) believed that the default risk of counterparties in the supply chain could potentially cause contagious effects between credit risks. Liu et al. (2012) established a two-dimensional framework for analyzing the dynamic supplier risk. Tao et al. (2013) established a SIGN-GERT model to analyze the risk dynamics of development progress of complex equipment. Garvey et al. (2015) used the Bayesian Network method and developed a risk propagation model in the supply network. Scheibe and Blackhurst (2017) explained the spread of supply chain disruptions from three dimensions. White and Censlive (2020) used nonlinear modeling to study the elastic response of multiple faults in a two-tier supply chain.

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