1.1. Research Background and Significance
Global civil aviation has seen substantial expansion in recent years as a result of improvements in economic globalization and air transportation infrastructure. Since 1978, when China started its economic reform and opening up, the country's civil aircraft transportation has had a brisk yearly increase of 16.3%. According to L. Zhang et al. (2021), this growth rate is much larger than that of other modes of transportation. However, the unexpected COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019 had a significant global social and economic impact. Traffic restrictions have been in place all over the world for an exceptionally long time because of COVID-19, an illness that is spread by inhaling the virus. These limitations set off a series of events that affected many areas, including the global supply chain, and led to a severe economic downturn. The worldwide aviation industry as well as China suffered from the 3.4% decline in the global economy that occurred in 2020.
The COVID-19 crisis has had an effect on the aviation sector and has had a substantial impact on the passenger market for civil aviation. This has led to two significant obstacles for industry’s growth in the post-epidemic age. Managing the complicated and uncertain business environment of civil aviation firms has gotten harder, according to Pereira et al. (2021). Second, because of sudden outside shocks, the industry is currently subject to severe regulations. According to Shahul Hameed et al. (2022), the increasing complexity will demand more flexible decision-making from companies. After the pandemic, L. Zhang et al. (2021) discovered sizable changes in the market for civil aviation passenger travel. In China, the scale and popularity of passenger air travel have altered, resulting in greater disparities across various times and areas and a much higher level of unpredictability.
Airlines and airports must be more prepared to handle the complex passenger market and post-epidemic commercial climate if they are to successfully navigate it. Wierzbinski et al. (2023) states that precise market data collection and analysis are crucial for managing enterprise knowledge. This is a crucial element that aids companies in being more competitive and succeeding in the post-pandemic market rivalry. In order to make adaptable strategic decisions and safeguard themselves from increasing business complexity, airlines and airports need be aware of their whole target market and each segment's capability. Additionally, those who work in the civil aviation sector (such as government representatives, regulators, financiers, etc.) need to be fully aware of the industry's projected development rate and size. With the use of this information, they may assess the value of their assets, come up with investment plans, get funding, determine their financial capability, and choose whether or not to apply for government assistance. The implementation of the “New Ten Principles” and other policies by the end of 2022 is anticipated to help the Chinese civil aviation sector enter a phase of recovery and high-quality development in 2023. To support and develop China's air passenger transport business, a strong air transportation network connecting key cities is essential. For Chinese aviation companies and stakeholders to support the recovery and development of the industry, accurate forecasting of the volume and growth of air travel is essential.
The ambiguity and instability of air travel make it difficult to predict the demand for civil aviation passenger transport after an epidemic. As a result, we are faced with uncertainty. According to research by Kumbure et al. (2022) and Wu and Xiong (2021), earlier forecast techniques that depended on traditional statistical models and a single model are unable to accurately reflect the current situation of the civil aviation industry. It is crucial to rely on models that are more adapted for complicated and quickly changing scenarios in order to perform future study.