Exploratory and Multi-Objective Decision-Making Methods for Retrofit Planning Processes

Exploratory and Multi-Objective Decision-Making Methods for Retrofit Planning Processes

Sahin Akin, Orcun Koral Iseri, Ipek Gursel Dino, Bilge Erdogan
DOI: 10.4018/IJDIBE.301244
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Abstract

Existing buildings are seen as a potential field where effective carbon-saving and energy-efficiency strategies can be applied. Their lifetime and performance can be increased by implementing different retrofit measures. The retrofit processes remain a complex task that necessitates long-term planning and costly operations and requires a consensus of their stakeholders to identify an ultimate solution from many alternatives. This paper demonstrates a simulation-based exploratory approach, allowing a broader consideration of alternative retrofit solutions to increase non-technical and technical stakeholders’ involvement over design decisions. A hypothetical office building was selected, and a list of retrofit parameters and their combinations focusing on multiple objectives was determined, modeled, simulated, and visualized. Three different decision-making approaches are presented and discussed over the case study results. The study suggests that giving a voice to all stakeholders in decision-making processes might lead to achieving more robust retrofit solutions.
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Introduction

Rapid anthropogenic development has adverse effects on the earth’s climate system. Thus, the climate system is under threat than at any point in civilization history, and change in the climate is seen as the most significant global and long-term problem of the 21st century (Barros et al., 2014). Greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere have the most detrimental factor in climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). For this reason, it is necessary to examine, analyze, and minimize the effects of climate change. Implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies plays a critical role in fighting against climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014).

The buildings are responsible for 30% of carbon emissions and have more than 30% of the total energy demand globally (Korde-Nayak, 2017). These emissions are primarily due to the existing building stock rather than the new constructions, which have a small share of the emissions per annum (Durmus-pedini & Ashuri, 2010). The total emissions of buildings are classified into two as operational and embodied carbon emissions. Embodied carbon is the sum of the total emitted carbon from the construction and demolition of buildings, including raw material extraction, material refinement, transportation, and material disposal at the buildings’ end-of-life phases. On the other hand, operational carbon emissions are related to buildings’ in-use carbon emissions caused by their operation (e.g., heating, lighting, cooling, and providing water), management, and maintenance (Ibn-Mohammed, Greenough, Taylor, Ozawa-Meida, & Acquaye, 2013). However, the operational carbon release in a building is almost 80% of its total life cycle carbon emissions and is seen as a critical environmental threat, especially for existing buildings (Ramesh, Prakash, & Shukla, 2010).

Building retrofits’ contribution to sustainability and climate change mitigation strategies should not be overlooked. Rather than reconstructing entire buildings as green buildings, retrofitting existing buildings can reduce carbon emissions more effectively. As the remanufacturing of building elements increases embodied carbon emissions associated with construction, a substantial reduction in water and energy savings can be achieved while increasing the indoor air quality and comfort in buildings through retrofitting. Therefore, improving the performance of existing buildings regarding energy and environmental impact is necessary to achieve low energy demand and low carbon emissions towards mitigation of climate change, climate resilience, and sustainable development. However, identifying the future retrofitting actions remains a complex process wherein various design parameters and objectives are involved. Identifying the most effective solutions requires a collaborative evaluation to satisfy all stakeholders’ expectations; however, stakeholders may generally have conflicting objectives during the decision-making processes. This paper discusses different user preference-based decision-making approaches for building retrofits that simultaneously evaluate multiple design parameters and objectives.

To understand better the user preference-based decision-making process, a hypothetical simulation process was carried out within the framework of the study. In this regard, a hypothetical office building was selected, and an energy model was developed with various design parameters and objectives. All possible design combinations’ simulations were conducted and visualized in an interactive and integrated diagram. The diagram was divided into two interrelated spaces, namely design and performance, for a broader exploration of alternative retrofit solutions to increase stakeholders’ control over design decisions for improved building performance. The results were then examined and discussed hypothetically by different stakeholder groups.

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