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There has been a considerable safety improvement over the last centuries. The average life expectancy at birth of the world population in 1770 was slightly below 30 years, rising to 70 years in 2018 (Roser, 2019). The advancement in technology and science has led to increased production of food, new medicines and vaccines, and better treatment and care. Obesity is a larger problem today than starvation, the number of people killed in wars and by diseases are reduced (Pinker, 2011). A comprehensive overview of the total global health situation and positive overall trend can be obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) (cf. Stanaway et.al., 2018 and Roser & Ritchie 2019).
The prospect for the future, however, is more uncertain as many new risks might emerge (Harari, 2016), some for the very same reasons that brought about the safety gains. Past trend is no guarantee for continued safety improvements. Global warming and pollution, the growing debt bubble, reduced effects of antibiotics, new viruses, artificial intelligence and robots where man is not in the loop, the harvesting of personal data for targeted commercials, the challenge for democracy by the influence on people’s voting behavior through use of big data (Rose, 2019), (cyber)wars, overpopulation, pandemics and migrations. The inequality of wealth between the poor and the very rich is growing (Piketty, 2014). Financial capital is increasing much more than production capital. Some of these changes might be benign, others might not. They may interact in ways that are not able to foresee, but it is likely that financial turmoil may occur. Minor conflicts may lead to social unrest due to rapid spread in social media (Jackson, 2017). Belief systems contradicting science may shake the foundation of the welfare state. The rise of victimhood culture (Campbell & Manning, 2018), identity politics and no-platforming initiatives might pose a threat to freedom of speech, and thus the basis for the western version of human rights and democracy (Lukianoff & Haidt, 2018). Some hazards may reinforce each other, e.g. through amplification effects of perceived risk in social settings (Fjaeran & Aven 2019). The future has indeed numerous challenges, and they may come as both negative uncertainties (risks) and positive opportunities.