A Lone Wolf vs. an Affiliated Terrorist: Knowledge Inference on Who Poses More Danger to the Tourist

Introduction

Terrorism has negatively affected tourism development including domestic and international tourism. A study using the monthly terrorism and tourist data from Turkey between 2007 to 2016 found that terrorist incidents have caused a decrease in domestic and inbound tourist arrivals in that country in both the short and long runs (Karameliki, Khan, & Karimi, 2020). The study suggested an improvement in security and safety measures against terrorist attacks, especially in tourist areas, to restore the confidence of tourists concerning their safety. In a related study, Adeloye, Carr, and Insch (2020) investigated how terrorist incidents affect the perception of domestic tourists and their travel intentions. The study, which was based on the data obtained from 52 Nigerian domestic tourists, identified three types of exposure to terrorist activities including indirect, semi-direct, and direct exposures. Adeloye et al. (2020) found that each type of exposure has a varying impact on the risk perception and travel intentions of the tourists, which ultimately affects tourism activities negatively. Similarly, Schmude, Karl, and Weber (2020) estimated the total loss incurred by the Paris tourism industry due to terror attacks, between 2015 and 2017, to two billion euros. According to Schmude et al. (2020), these losses resulted from a decrease in the number of visitors, discounts offered by the accommodation sector to attract guests, and additional expenditure on marketing to convince tourists about their safety from terror attacks.

The records in the global terrorism database (GTD), maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), show that 3.5% of the total terror attacks across the world between 1970 to 2019 were targeted at tourists (START, 2019). A terror attack can be perpetrated by either a lone wolf or an affiliated terrorist. A lone wolf is a terrorist who does not belong to an organized terror group (Byman, 2017). Lone wolves act on their own without reporting or taking directives from a terror organization. On the other hand, an affiliated terrorist is one who belongs to a well-organized terror group consisting of a hierarchical structure and organs with predefined roles such as publicity, recruitment, planning of attacks, and foot soldiers (Toevs, 2020). These categories of terrorists use different attack strategies to get at their victims. The security strategies for preventing or reducing the impact of a lone-wolf’s attack are different from those of affiliated terrorists. To put the appropriate security structures in place to protect tourists from terror attacks, it is important to establish which terrorist category (lone wolf or affiliated terrorists) is more concerned with targeting tourists. Such knowledge can guide tourism managers in conjunction with counterterrorism agents on which security strategies to pay more attention to when designing and implementing security measures against terrorists in the tourism circles.

Consequently, the objective of this study was to carry out an analysis of the GTD to extract knowledge on which of the terrorist categories - lone wolf or affiliated terrorist - is more associated with terror attacks that target tourists. That is, between a terrorist operating on their own (lone wolf) and terrorist(s) working for terror organizations (affiliated terrorist), who poses more danger to the tourists? This question is answered in the present study after an analysis of the patterns of terror attacks on tourists reported in the GTD. Since lone wolves employ attack strategies that are different from organized terrorists, the findings of this study are important in giving an insight into the appropriate security control measures to put in place for tourists’ safety.